Wow, that ad is really tough on Republicans. Why doesn't he do that in English too?

Posted at September 17, 2008 4:13 PM in response to Obama Spanish-Language Ad Ties McCain To Anti-Immigrant Limbaugh

Seems pretty hard to link this to Palin, since most of the movement is from Obama to undecided. Could the Palin announcement really have made people decide they don't want to vote for Obama, but not that they do want to vote for McCain?

I smell an outlier.

Posted at September 4, 2008 5:22 PM in response to Poll: Obama's Lead Disappears In Wake Of Palin Announcement

Good. This speech is not going to convince anybody, and it's practically guaranteed to overshadow McCain's.

So it's come to this: After scoffing for months at Obama's speechifying, conservatives are prepared to hand this woman the keys to the White House based on one speech.

Posted at September 4, 2008 4:29 PM in response to Palin's Speech Watched By Nearly As Many As Obama's Acceptance

The infanticide part is part of a long-shot smear that's been kicking around lately:

The justification for Hudson's misleading "infanticide" charge stems from a proposed state version of the federal Born Alive Infant Protection Act, debated in Illinois when Obama was a state senator in 2001. The most well-publicized portion of that bill would have required that any "viable" fetus surviving a late-term abortion receive sustaining medical care (something which opponents of that bill said was already required by a 1975 bill in the state). But because Obama voted "no" in committee and "present" on the Senate floor, Hudson reasons, Obama must have been in favor of killing viable, born babies -- especially since the U.S. Congress also passed a "born alive" measure in 2002 in near unanimous fashion.

Posted at September 3, 2008 12:02 AM in response to Thompson Suggests Obama Doesn't Oppose Infanticide

Sarah would be in DC and fairly busy, and Bristol, hubboy and baby would be back in Alaska. Would Sarah really leave her high and dry like that?

Why on earth wouldn't they move to DC with her like every other vice-president's family has done?

Posted at September 1, 2008 6:18 PM in response to Second McCain Adviser Sidesteps Question About When McCain Camp Knew About Pregnancy

Subtly? Every news story I've read has referred to the rumor in the first paragraph.

Posted at September 1, 2008 6:17 PM in response to Second McCain Adviser Sidesteps Question About When McCain Camp Knew About Pregnancy

This is to be expected after the story that you reported earlier about Palin arranging a deposition in the investigation, isn't it?

Posted at September 1, 2008 5:26 PM in response to Palin Hires Lawyer for Trooper-Gate Investigation

I consider these to be more evidence of a bounce:

Would Obama be an effective commander in chief?
Very Likely 29 (+8)
Somewhat Likely 34 (-3)
Not Likely 34 (-6)

Has Obama made it clear what he will do as President?
Yes 50 (+9)
No 44 (-11)

Posted at September 1, 2008 5:17 PM in response to Poll: Obama Takes Eight-Point Post-Convention Lead

The liberal blogs are not really the echo chamber that has been driving this rumor. Do a google search for Bristol Palin and you'll see who has been driving it -- the celebrity gossip blogs who love any rumors concerning pregnancy and lies. The rumor was alive and kicking in Alaska before anybody else had any interest in the subject, meanwhile -- it found the liberal blogs, the liberal blogs didn't create it.

The McCain campaign made a calculation that they could get away with blaming the rumor on DailyKos because they thought a lazy national press would reprint their accusation without seriously examining it (irony alert!).

Posted at September 1, 2008 1:15 PM in response to McCain Campaign: Palin's 17-Year-Old Daughter Is Pregnant

Don't expect Obama's tracking poll result to improve tomorrow. It will probably be going down on Sunday. The three-day average is giving deceptive results right now in the face of very volatile numbers.

Note that four days ago McCain took the lead in the tracking poll. This means that four days ago, the daily sample must've shown McCain ahead. Yesterday's tracking poll release included that sample, but today's doesn't. The fact that Obama's lead went up in today's tracking poll release just reflects that yesterday's sample was better than the one that fell off. Since his lead only went up by 1 point, it wasn't very much better -- it was probably a tie.

Posted at August 29, 2008 3:23 PM in response to Obama's Convention Bounce Grows