Are You Better Off? Reagan vs. Carter, and Obama vs. McCain

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By John Schmitt and Dean Baker

In his 1980 presidential debate with Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan famously asked the American people whether they were better off than they had been four years ago. Enough voters answered "no" to give Reagan a decisive victory in the election.

Senator Obama is posing the same question today, since Senator McCain promises to continue the economic policies of the Bush administration. One of us (John Schmitt) recently compared all the major indicators of economic well-being in 2008 and 2000.

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Traction in the Health Care Debate

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Growing voter concerns over the financial crisis are closely connected to worries about health care. The latest Institute for America's Future Op Ed ad in Tuesday's NY Times links the two issues directly, with the headline: WILL WE LET CONSERVATIVES DO TO HEALTH CARE WHAT THEY DID TO BANKING ? As voters feel the economy go into a tailspin, they join the millions of Americans already fearful they will lose their jobs and their health coverage.

Conservatives generally ignore health care, but now all politicians are forced to say something. In just the last few several weeks, the national media have finally started to cover the stark differences between John McCain and Barack Obama on health care. And it took some active education to get them to report the story.

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Overconfidence: A Sermon on Not Picking Your Cherries Until They Hatch

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Like every other breathless cosmopolitan whose veins pulse with red-white-and-blue blood (the world being at stake and all), I start the day at the keyboard, trying to put a floor under my worry, hunting excitement, relief, or both, with Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com (just for openers), scrutinizing the state totals, then totaling them again on the assumption that each Obama figure has to be discounted by 5 points. I rummage through reports on Obama lawn signs sprouting on hitherto arid pastures and that some slow-to-decide white workers have decided that, in the words of a steelworker in old industrial Beaver Falls, PA, "It's Time to Give the Black Guy a Chance."

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A Profile in Nit-picking

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I wrote here yesterday that McCain and the Republicans are forcing smart conservative and neo-conservative Republicans like New York Times columnist David Brooks to choose between their intellectual/moral self-respect and their ideological and partisan loyalties.

William F. Buckley's son Christopher has endorsed Obama. So has Ed Koch. George Will, the National Review's Jonah Goldberg and even, heaven help us, neo-con scourge Charles Krauthammer have virtually endorsed him and have certainly written off McCain/Palin.

So, what did Brooks do this morning; what does it show us; and why does it matter?

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The Ones That Got Away: The Color Line

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We have seen a presidential candidate called a terrorist, a traitor, "that one", and derided as an "Arab". We may have witnessed a call for his murder in public. Media sources continue to report on new incidents like these, and our readers continue to discuss them here at TPM. Maybe the election is no place for a "race card", but we need to closely examine what's happening with race right now. I want to highlight a few posts where readers pinpoint the questions and sentiments running through our collective thoughts:

-See here as Deanie Mills outlines the currents of racism that plague this election.

-See here as Howard1 highlights the accusation that supporting Obama conceals a hidden racism.

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All Praise to Paul Krugman

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As it happens, when I went into government in 1993 I started reading Krugman and have now read almost all of his books and almost all of his popular writing. I haven't read all his scholarly papers!

As a policy maker and inveterate if occasional adviser to policy makers, I have never found an economist who made more sense, gave more guidance, provided more timely and useful advice than Paul Krugman.

All praise to him and the committee that singled him out for the Nobel: a noble choice indeed.

Stimulus versus Investment

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There's no doubt that the general crisis of confidence in the American economy -- most clearly manifested by the seizing up of even the most normal lending activity --- will translate to a downturn in the GDP and a sad increase in unemployment.

There's no doubt also that in the short-run some federal spending in support of ready-to-go infrastructure and state and local budgets will make for a less cold winter economically than would otherwise be the case.

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Pallin' around with Palin

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The hate-mongering politics of Sarah Palin, John McCain and
their supporters are not going to be enough to "change the subject"
from the economic crisis and the fact that most voters see Barack Obama
as being better equipped to deal with it. But pointed references to
Obama as someone who "pals around" with terrorists and somehow isn't
a "real" American with "small town values" are resonating with an increasingly
hateful and vocal minority of the electorate who don't want to see an African-
American as our next president.

While the televised talking heads have for the most part minimized this issue
by pointing to a few instances in which McCain has called Obama a "good man"
in response to questions at his rallies, Frank Rich makes clear in his Sunday
column of this week that McCain needs to do far more to rein in the hatred that his campaign has helped to fuel.

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Voter Registration As a Subversive Activity

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(Hey, it's my day off.) You might not have known, the worldwide financial crisis was caused by black folks trying to buy homes, abetted by those dangerous ACORNs*:

"Republicans have also attempted to link the organization to the current financial crisis. On Friday the McCain campaign posted a Web video that accused ACORN of "bullying banks" and "forc[ing them] to issue risky home loans. The same types of loans that caused the financial crisis we're in today."

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A Pundit's Day of Reckoning -- and Ours

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Poor David Brooks. Really. In 2004 Nicholas Confessore detailed the New York Times columnist's maddening habit of oscillating between serious commentary and Republican hackery: In one column, Brooks would stroke his chin like a sober savant, purveying credible analysis; in the next, he'd gyrate shamelessly for ideologues and Bush operatives such as Scooter Libby and Karl Rove.

He pirouettes like this constantly to maintain some intellectual self-respect, on the one hand, and to hold onto his market niche as a conservative Republican apologist, on the other. He has tried to square this circle with forced geniality throughout Republicans' Iraq War lying, torture and warrantless surveillance, borrow-and-borrow, spend-and-spend fiscal policy, bottomless corruption, and, lately, national socialism. But John McCain is stopping Brooks' game.

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Congratulations to Paul Krugman

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Paul Krugman's Nobel Prize is wonderful news. It appropriately honors his work as an economist -- and it will have the salutory effect of enhancing his impact as a public intellectual at a key juncture in US and world history. When it was not at all fashionable, we all need to remember, Krugman consistently spoke against the mendacity of the Bush administration. He correctly predicted the disasters in foreign and economic policy to which that administration's horrendous and corrupt decisions would lead. Bravo to him -- and thanks to the Nobel committee.

The Nation Credits TPMers For Killing AIPAC's Iran Blockade Bill

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This is nice.

Almost immediately after I posted about the AIPAC Iran blockade bill here, Hill offices started getting contacted by TPMers (and others who read the post elsewhere).

This just demonstrates how the web has changed everything. In the old days, nobody but AIPAC types would have known about the bill and it would have been quickly approved. Now the web allows all of us to shine a light on activities that used to go on behind closed doors.

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An Open Thread Of Congratulations

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The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has awarded Princeton professor and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman the Nobel economics prize for his work on free trade. We here at TPMCafe want to offer a warm congratulations to Paul.

Hack Kristol Urges McCain To Fire His Whole Campaign

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You have to marvel at the Times for keeping neocon columnist Bill Kristol on its op-ed page. He's not smart, he writes poorly and he's nothing but a GOP flack.

Today's column urges McCain to get rid of his campaign staff and run as the great guy he is. It's typical Kristol, all simplistic strategy, no discussion of issues. Why does Kristol care who wins? One, because the neocon drive on Iran will collapse without McCain. And, two, only a GOP administration will employ his friends.

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We Have Met the Enemy, and He Is Tom Brokaw

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Before I start, I want to say that if there was one bit of advice I could give Barack Obama for the final debate, it's to note that Gabby Hayes does not understand that the current economic mess is not a consequence of corruption. His simple-minded, self-righteous clichés are not the change we need. On the corruption front, the problem is not the violation of laws. The problem is what is legal. End of advice.

Hey all you media people -- David Broder, Brian Williams, Jim Lehrer -- who think the candidates are now obliged to detail a medley of painful spending cuts and tax increases, will you please shut your stupid face? You have no idea what you are talking about.

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