Staging Nuke for Iran?

Why the hubbub over a B-52 taking off from a B-52 base in Minot, North Dakota and subsequently landing at a B-52 base in Barksdale, Louisiana? That’s like getting excited if you see a postal worker in uniform walking out of a post office. And how does someone watching a B-52 land identify the cruise missiles as nukes? It just does not make sense.

So I called a old friend and retired B-52 pilot and asked him. What he told me offers one compelling case of circumstantial evidence. My buddy, let’s call him Jack D. Ripper, reminded me that the only times you put weapons on a plane is when they are on alert or if you are tasked to move the weapons to a specific site.

Then he told me something I had not heard before.
Barksdale Air Force Base is being used as a jumping off point for Middle East operations. Gee, why would we want cruise missile nukes at Barksdale Air Force Base. Can’t imagine we would need to use them in Iraq. Why would we want to preposition nuclear weapons at a base conducting Middle East operations?

His final point was to observe that someone on the inside obviously leaked the info that the planes were carrying nukes. A B-52 landing at Barksdale is a non-event. A B-52 landing with nukes. That is something else.

Now maybe there is an innocent explanation for this? I can’t think of one. What is certain is that the pilots of this plane did not just make a last minute decision to strap on some nukes and take them for a joy ride. We need some tough questions and clear answers. What the hell is going on? Did someone at Barksdale try to indirectly warn the American people that the Bush Administration is staging nukes for Iran? I don’t know, but it is a question worth asking.


Comments (225)

avatar

Hmmmm

This is getting creepier and creepier. Unfortunately the explanation that Barksdale is a staging base for Middle East operations makes a lot of sense.

I just hope there are still a few people in the military chain of command who have the integrity to blow the whistle before we commit the world's worst war crime. If we just had a free press we would be alright, but that day has come and gone.

Hoppy in Sacramento

Larry, what is Putin doing?  Mobilizing his strategic bombers that have been moth-balled since the end of the cold war. Violating British air space, Alaskan air space, Guam, Georgian air space?  Nothing's written in stone, allegations are flying this way or that. But something's going on.  My guess is that Iran certainly figures in somewhere, but it may be a pretext to a broader issue - specifically the forming geopolitical context over Caspian oil and gas.  

There's a terrific piece in the Asia Times today on the newly completed USACE built bridge spaning the Oxus River in the Panjir region of Afghanistan, connecting stratigically important Tajikistan with Afghanistan.  A major nibble at Russian energy hegemony in Central Asia.  I wouldn't be surprised if terrorists attack this bridge in the near future.  But my inclination is that the "great game" referred to by the author, M K Bhadrakumar, is the central informing element in US policy in Central Asia, and Iran plays a key role in everyone's ambitions in this part of the world.  

So yes, I think it makes sense to start moving US nukes around - regrettably so. 

Neoboho

According to the original story that I saw, the cruise missiles were on the bomber because they were being decommissioned as part of a program. The nukes were supposed to be detached first, but weren't.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2007-09-05-b-52_N.htm


I really don't see conspiracy in this one.

The more likely explanation for the leak of the info is that, instead of a brave whistleblower trying to stop the war machine, it was an intentional Cheney cabal gambit in their ongoing simultaneous agitprop campaigns targeting the Pentagon/realists and the Iranians.

avatar

I think it's fairly obvious that someone has that integrity. This story was leaked to the Military Times, and then printed there.

I don't imagine that happens without someone's approval rather high up the chain of command.

avatar

OK. Should we loosen up some cannon as well?

avatar

I can't believe that the crew of that bomber failed to do their walk-around inspection of the plane before they took off. I can't believe the nuke cruise missiles did not have the usual nuclear markings on them. I find it very hard to believe the crew did not see the nuclear markings on the missiles.

Info on the AGM-129 ACM nuclear capable advanced cruise missiles carried on B-52H bombers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-129_ACM

avatar

.> This is getting creepier and creepier.

That's the kind of phrase I generally read when my eyeballs are singed by accidentally reading a Radical Right meme e-mail. Let's stay reality-based here: 99.85% chance this was a mistake. A stupid, career-ending mistake, but then again that is why there are PALs on the warheads themselves.

sPh

avatar

"Cheney cabal gambit"?
"simultaneous agitprop campaigns" ?

Conspiracy at every turn beliefs aside, what thesaurus are you using? Please try the English one.

You might be surprised, JeffC.  While I was in Vietnam some of the best critiques of the war and the military itself I read on the pages of the Army Times.  Things may have changed since then, obviously, but I can certainly remember thinking "I can't believe I read that in a military rag." 

Neoboho

avatar

The official story is that the missiles were decommissioned ACMs. Why they were mounted under the wings instead of being transported inside a cargo plane with the warheads removed is an interesting question. Pretty hard to believe it was all just an accident.

avatar

Putin violating British and American airspace?? What fantasies are you trying to push? This is pure garbage.

The number one threat to peace in the world today is the USA. There is no close second. If the US is repositioning nuclear weapons at an airbase serving the ME we should be very very worried. Last year Hirsh revealed that Pentgon gamers were looking into the nuclear option regarding Iran. According to his sources this was not routine. His sources mentioned that more sober minded military types were trying to 'walk this plan' back into the closet.

Sorry, sniflheim, your comment is over my head. What do you mean?

Neoboho

Either way -- agitprop for the Iranians, or a whistleblower alert -- it isn't good.

At some point, all necessary munitions, fuel, and personnel will be in place, armed and (if necessary) programmed -- all depending upon what's called for in the operational plans. Then a 'go' order can be given. And if there is an operational plan regarding Iran that calls for nuclear-tipped cruise missles -- it's even less good.

I'm not sure about B-52 Wings, but our B-2 fleet is based at Whiteman AFB in Missouri. The B-2 can carry conventional, or nuclear, munitions. If anyone has friends there, and remembers what it was like when they were launched in 2003 -- when they hear it happening again, we may be 18 to 20 hours from a more serious war -- that's as long as it will take them to reach targets in Iran. That will be seriously not good.

This isn't brinksmanship. It's something else.

It's an example of the poisonous atmosphere, that we are looking for trouble in the explanation. But if the nukes were being decomissioned,, why didn't they have a big yellow flag draped over them or some other "Stop!" sign?

It really smells. The AF wouldn't even acknowledge whether nukes were mounted, normally. Flying in US airspace with weapons of any sort is not a usual occurence, and would have a string of permissions logged somewhere.

Of course, it could be a screwup; we're far from immune. If it is, we should be worried, though. It implies a shakeup is in order concerning nuclear warhead inventories.

avatar

Oh good grief! This "bomb Iran" paranoia is getting as tiresome and absurd as the mirror iamge paranoia on the Right where there's always some dastardly terrorist plot about to go down.
How do you know there were nukes? A groundless rumor spread by someone claiming to be inside the base, when for all you know it was some blogger a thousand miles away? And while the Bush administration is notoriously incompetent, I trust the military is still on the ball enough not to parade its nukes around in plain sight of the world outside their bases (they also don't have those little atom symbols painted on them as they do in the cartoons; in fact I'm not sure how anyone not in the know would be able to tell a nuclear topped missile from a conventional missile.
Can we plaese get back to talking about serious adult stuff that we might actually be able to do something about-- like next year's election, universal healthcare, the mortgage marlet mess, and the rest of that stuff. There's quite enough trouble in the real world without borrowing more from the imagination.

Whether this is a simple misunderstanding, part of a propaganda maneuver or something much sinister and disastrous I think that at this point in time - especially given it's track record - nothing that occurs under the purview of this administration should go unquestioned or unchallenged.

This news scares me. Not because I'm conspiratorial but because this administration is just rash enough, just dumb enough and just dangerous enough to be heading in the most unthinkable of directions against all wisdom, reason or rationality. And if the disaster in Iraq is any indication to just how badly this administration can take a bad idea and make it far worse than you could ever imagine then this is indeed a cause for great alarm.

It's scary but even though I had not yet been born to experience it, recently this administration has filled me with a growing sort of dread that I imagine people felt during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I don't know if that's a fair comparison or not but the knot in my stomach isn't going to argue the point.

"How do you know there were nukes? A groundless rumor spread by someone claiming to be inside the base, when for all you know it was some blogger a thousand miles away?"

No, the story is from the Military Times. Did you even bother to really look at this? I am not sure if this merits a 1 or a 0.

avatar

We all know Cheney is determined to do this.
We all know that Cheney has been a proponent of "limited" nuclear warfare.
What has anyone stopped Cheney from doing since he wrested control of the country?
Three cheers to you for trying to expose as much as possible before the inevitable occurs.
Get your disaster preparedness kits ready, all the same. We are "one bomb away" from needing them.

avatar

Bush makes everyone paranoid...and for good reason.
What I'd like to know is what happens to the warheads now. Okay it was a mistake...but now that they're here already do they just keep them there? At a airbase that is a jump start point for ME operations? I can see how it got press as "look at what some dumbshit did" but the paranoia comes from the base involved. What happens to the nukes now is worth noting

avatar

It's very fair mcboo. None of us felt to secure leaping under our desks or (alternatively) hugging the classroom walls with our face turned toward it.
I imagine those drills were being run in every school in the country that had not long before emerged from WWII. There was at least some notion that we ought to do something to try to protect our children, however inane the enactment of that thought was.

I lived through the missile crisis, although I was pretty young. Worhth considering is that Kennedy's first reaction on discovering that Kruschev had put one over on us was summary use of force to destroy the installations. It was actually CIA director McCone that talked him down to bargaining. And it was of course a little humbling for Kennedy to learn exactly how many Jupiter missiles we had positioned on Turkish soil, pointed at Russia.

More than a few people, especially the principals, were surprised when they woke the next morning, still alive. Russian theater commanders had authority to use the nukes, and there are stories of one being close to doing so in response to the blockade. Curtis LeMay couldn't wait to invade. But still, it didn't happen, we cut a deal, and so on.

I take the lesson that when the bet is upped by bringing in nukes, people get real attentive. My guess is that if people are talking nukes re Iran, it won't happen. It's when they think they can do it all with precision conventional ordinance that they feel no hesitation.

Still, it smells bad. Wonder if we'll find out without having to wait fifty years for declassification.

avatar

... and thanks so much Nancy Pelosi for taking impeachment of these mass murderers "off the table". Now we can have the opportunity to have nukes used again for the first time since 1945 for two reasons - George W. Bush is a moron and Dick Cheney is a maniac.Tom

J. McCutchen

What on earth are you talking about? "Makes sense" why? The Russians R coming? The IslamoFascists? The Ayatollahs?

Nuke Waziristan.

This country is chock full o nuts. Iraq proved that

avatar

I hate to admit it but my high school basketball buddy in October 1962 said after leaving practice one night, "Well, at least we won't have to do our homework." That was because we both assumed we were going to get fried that night.Tom

avatar

They must be up to something...why else would Tucker have Ed Schultz and Eugene Robinson on talking about everything BUT this?

It will be interesting to see if the MSM buries this story until the big event.

avatar

If I remember Evan Thomas's book on Robert Kennedy correctly, it was Gen. Curtis LeMay and the Joint Chiefs who were pushing for military action. JFK was a moderating force as was RFK, although at first Bobby was pushing for a "false flag" incident to use as an excuse to invade.Tom

avatar

From Santa Rosa's, Ca. Press Democrat 9/5/07:

Admiral William Fallon, commander of U.S. Central Command, addressing the San Francisco Commonwealth Club on Monday "criticized Iran for it's 'unhelpful role' in the Middle East, but said the United States is not contemplating an invasion." "I don't plan to attack the place. That's not my charter."

He was also giving a 'rosy' picture of results of the troop surge in Iraq, so that reassures me on Iran.

avatar

The leak and/or the disinformation about nuclear-armed cruise missiles seems like a way of rattling the nuclear saber without doing much.

avatar

not. good.
BUT: crude oil futures for nov and dec. haven't moved significantly - except the open interest on Dec. contracts (but that can be attributed to seasonal factors: traders are like sheep, they expect a cold winter). So the markets say no Iran run for now. Then again, the markets are right until they're wrong...
[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!

avatar

Not to worry about nukes. The Democrats are saving us from toys today. They can't stop the war or prevent a new war. They can protect our civil rights or guarantee children have health care. But they are out front on toys.

I agree with mcboo, and I have the same kind of sensations around this.

I was one of the kids practicing duck-and-cover drills during the last two weeks of October in 1962 -- which even in the fifth grade, we believed were only to give us something to feel 'involved' in Civil Defense. Of course, we were five miles from a Minuteman missle field, so no one had any illusions that being under a desk meant anything.

Governments always prefer to keep public awareness of potential disaster low, usually for good reasons -- but this 'administration' is secretive for different reasons: When you're going to break the law, you don't want anyone to know in advance.

avatar

'We Are Going To Hit Iran...Bigtime'
". . . She told me we are going to attack Iran. She said that all the Air Operation Planning and Asset Tasking are finished. That means that all the targets have been chosen, prioritized, and tasked to specific aircraft, bases, carriers, missile cruisers and so forth. . . .Today, orders just come down from the mountaintop and there's no questioning. In fact, there is no discussing it. I have seen more than one senior commander disappear and then three weeks later we find out that he has been replaced. That's really weird. It's also really weird because everyone who has disappeared has questioned whether or not we should be staging a massive attack on Iran."
http://www.rense.com/general78/we.htm

avatar

A mistake? To fly with any ordinance requires sign-offs from ground crew, chain of authority, etc. And nukes are far and beyond other ordinance.

The claim they accidentally forgot to remove the warheads and didn't notice, after it was leaked they were moved, not plausible. It's not like nuclear warheads are disassembled on the runway and left beside the fuel trucks. Removal of a warhead is going to set gears into motion, any number of which are sure to notice they don't have the warheads.

Presuming these were nukes as alleged and this info was leaked, either by a whistle blower or a deliberate propagandist sending a message to someone, the probability of movement by mistake is close to zero.

avatar

You might want to do a simple google news search before declaring something to be "fantasy":

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/19/wrussia419.xml

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/16/wrussia116.xml

The specifics were a little off; the Russian bombers didn't actually violate British or American airspace, but they did come close enough to demonstrate that they could, and close enough that the British scrambled fighters to intercept them.

avatar

So Nancy can play with her grandchildren (who could get fried along with the rest of us because Grandmom took "impeachment off the table"). Geez, Denny Hastert already did that. Thanks again, Democratic party leaders (also known as idiots and/or cowards and/or career path over everything - even your grandchildren's future)!Tom

The Kennedys both started off ready to attack, according to recollections in Tim Weiner's book on the CIA. When they looked closer and learned how messy that would be, or inconclusive if not a ground invasion, they were willing to consider alternatives.

LeMay didn't care if it was messy; he was itching to start WW III and settle things for good. He likely has counterparts now, people that actually want stuff to blow up so the unbearable tension of simply managing things can be replaced with a mission, a war, a crusade.

avatar

Nukes flying over Louisiana??

Maybe the US Army Corps of Engineers' latest scheme for rebuilding the levees?

The two B-52 wings are at Barksdale AFB in Louisians, and Minot AFB in North Dakota. As mentioned, the B-2's are at Whiteman. In the past, Guam and Diego Garcia have been used as forward bases for heavy bombers.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

avatar

And while we're nuking Iran, guess who's sleeping snug as a bug in a rug:

www.asecondlookatthesaudis.com

Osama bin Laden must be laughing his ass off? I mean, how could God not be on his side?

avatar

You do know that posting, which originally appeared on DailyKos until Markos pointed out the inconsistencies, is thought by most who have looked into it to be a fabrication? A first-class troll, but a troll nonetheless.

sPh

Garbage?  Fantasies?  My gosh, you have Google at your fingertips - at least you could have checked before putin your foot in your mouth.

RAF scrambles to intercept Russian bombers (July 18, 07)

Russian bombers buzz US base in Guam

Report: Missile came from Russian airspace (Georgia)

Russian bombers to fire cruise missiles over Arctic

I don't deny your statement about the US being a threat to world piece, but you have to recognize that war is at least a two part proposition, and in the lead up we have a bunch of chicken and egg arguments.  As regards Iran, the problem of why Iran is so important should be addressed.  Nukes, terrorist support, fundamentalism etc. are all pretextural arguments.  The US interest in Western and Central Asia is energy, period.  If you don't believe me, ask Dick Cheney.

Neoboho

A MIT analysis of a conventional Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities only. The US has more potent conventional weapons than Israel, since heavy bombers can physically lift bombs, and deliver them from higher altitude (i.e., with more gravitational kinetic energy) than a fighter-bomber.

Given the capabilities of the B-2 (16 JDAM/JSOW or 48 JDAM Small Diameter Bombs, as well as 16 B-61 or B-83 nuclear weapons), I'm not sure why nuclear weapons would be needed.

How clear is the report that these were AGM-129 ACM (nuclear capable) rather than AGM-86C CALCMs? Wikipedia reports that the AGM-129s are being retired:


In March 2007, the USAF announced that it will retire its entire stockpile of AGM-129 missiles.[1]

In September 2007 five ACMs loaded on a B-52 were flown across the United States from Minot Air Force Base, N.D, to Barksdale Air Force Base, La in order to be decommissioned. However the live nuclear warheads which should have been removed before the flight were mistakenly left installed.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

avatar

So... simple, stunning, staggering, mind-blowing incompetence?

Hmmmm

Well, the Russians are boasting that they violated Guam's airspace, which the US denies, while denying that they violated British and Georgian airspace.  As I wrote, the allegations are flying both ways.  But what is clear is that Putin is doing a lot of saber-rattling, and he hasn't been particularly secretive about it.  He clearly announced last year that he would rebuild the Russian military, and he is doing it. 

Neoboho

avatar

It would be very interesting to know exactly how this story developed. Anybody know who first leaked this to the press, and when?

Is it mechanically best to carry missiles on their way to retirement under the wing? I can believe that might be the case. 

Do we know if they were mounted?

Do you know the future of the warhead design the AGM-129 carried?

avatar

It's from rense. In other words, completely and utterly NOT CREDIBLE.

avatar

Whatever it was, Bush is clearly in full provocation mode. They're just waiting for the Iranians to make that one "outrageous" move that gives them the casus belli they've been seeking. It's 9/11 all over again.

On an operational mission, the missiles would be carried (and launched) from the wings. It makes some sense they would be carried that way, since there would have to be custom packing crates to carry them in a transport. Live warheads, however, seem rather unlikely.

The warhead was the W80-3, which is a derivative, along with a number of other weapons, of the "physics package" of the B-61 "tactical" gravity bomb.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

avatar

That's a rather silly troll.

Are you saying lead containing toys shouldn't be regulated? That American children should be brain damaged and have lowered IQ because it's just not an important enough issue?

Nukes are under the purview of the executive, BushCo. The President is the CIC and along with the Pentagon has authority to move nukes around and do stupid things with them. Unfortunately.

Blame the voters, blame the Constitution. Blame all the idiots post 9/11 with the flag bumper stickers and mindless nationalism. Blame all the low IQ voters raised on lead paint chips who voted these war mongering bums and corporate puppets into office.

Congress can't legislate preventatively against every stupid thing this admin may do in the future. If it were possible, he'd be impeached already. If we didn't want a moron for president, more people should have paid attention in 2000 and 2004 and thought about more than tax cuts and nationalism.

Most Dems are doing what they can to get us out of Iraq. Like Webb for example. But they don't have enough votes in Congress because of many elected assholes in government. Take Mr Maccaca for example. He'd probably still be in office today if not for that slip up.

It showed up in Navy Times.

avatar

I may be echoing an earlier poster, but I think one way to analyze this is to keep an eye on what happened to the commander who authorized the nuke-laden flight--and especially what charges are brought (if any.) That story should be percolating among the military families in North Dakota right now.

Another way to look at it involves the somewhat large (140 kt) missile warheads. If that's what is normally found on cruise missiles, then maybe the official explanation (i.e. a screwup during transfer to a decom site) is probably the right one. ON the other hand, a 140 kt warhead is a little big (IMHO) to be found on the business end of a cruise missile (the Hiroshima bomb was 13-20 kt, and the biggest aboveground nuke test in the US was only 75 kt.) In fact, as I recall, the yield for the hypothetical bunker-busters was in the 150-300 kt range. Pretty close.

Bottom line, we don't YET know what's going on. Maybe nothing. Maybe not.

avatar

All I can say is this: if Bush uses nukes or attempts to use them for any reason against Iran I pray unto God that the military officers at the Pentagon will seize him, put him under arrest, deliver him over to the congress to have him impeached on the spot, then sent directly to the Hague for trial before and international tribunal.

According to the CNN followup the missiles were mounted normally, and the warheads would have been properly removed at Minot. Story mentions the W-80.

avatar

Knock it off, Val. At first I thought it was a cruise missile.

Watch this.

Many years ago I was a High Frequency Direction Finder operator on Adak, Alaska and our primary task was tracking Russian flights when they left their own airspace. They often would fly over the Aleutian Islands, over the west coast of Alaska, Washington, and Oregon and head back out to their base. What it was was nothing more than an elaborate game we, and they, used to test each others responses. I was also in Spain in the early 70's when the Russians were still in Egypt and the same games were played out over the Med. Their Migs would take wing and fly over the Med and as long as we knew they were up and we had a response in the air then there was no problem. I remember once when the Russians maintained all silence and overflew one of our carrier groups without a fighter escort from our side. Crap flew fast and loose from the fan over that one!

I tracked the first Mig Foxbat to leave Russian airspace and be flown into Egypt. That was an exciting evening and the teletypes, yes we used those then, hummed with all of the traffic!

What scares me more than anything else is that the morons in charge on both sides, we and the Russians, have little historical reference to what really happened on both sides during the Cold War! I will be 60 years old in a couple of months, I remember the duck and cover drills from my youth, but I have never been as frightened as I am now. The fright is for my children and my grandchildren given the world that these war criminals have made for us!

avatar

I do not believe that most Dems are doing what they can to get us out of Iraq. I do not believe they will get us out of Iraq if they control all 3 branches in 2o009. Ahh, Webb another FISA bill fan.

As to toys, they are a distraction from BIG issues. The Dem won't protect American workers. They won't back making "free" trade fair. They aren't going to protect us from the broad range of hazards that come into this country in a deregulated globalized market. It's just a "cute" issue. And sure, it gets my Senator Amy on the morning talks shows so she can be Senator Mommy.

She still votes for war. She still votes for FISA. She still doesn't support universal health care.

But Senator Mommy she is.

We have become an infantile party terrified of big issues and major change.

The Republicans claim they are going to protect us from global threats and the Democrats claim they are going to protect us from toys.

avatar

I think we should all take a deep breath here. I prefer messages that are sent through USA today, rather than those delivered directly by B2s or B52s. I don't think we're quite there yet.
[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!

avatar

Nuke or Non-Nike cruise missle.
They must look the same from the outside.

Will we possibly be faced with the stupid excuse after a pre-emptive "standard" cruise missle attack that "gee, I didn't know it was a nuke" - ?

avatar

SeeDee
No, kozmik, IMO, tlees2 said nothing about the 'lead-laden paint on toys. not needing regulation...

I read his post as a complaint about Pelosi's actions as Speaker of the House, and I fully understand his expressed exasperation with what has been accomplished by the Democrats that we sent to D.C. last fall.

She made a mistake by allowing Steny Hoyer's elevation to House Majority over Murth, and, even with the back-stabbing she received from the GOP over her Middle-East trip, she still seems more intent in playing ball with the architects of this nation's disasters around the globe than in representing the voters who asked for new LEADERSHIP in the last election.

avatar

Aren't we supposed to call them bunker-busters now? Your liberal bias is showing.

avatar

SeeDee

Bush's 'hard work' to put a rosy hue on the 'surge results'...the continuing diligence in seeking a reason to strike Iran...you hit the nail on the head, hrebendorf. Its de ja vu, all over again....

Oh, I was just pretending to be a military stragegist, I suppose.  But I'm reading a lot of material that claims that a new cold war has begun, largely because Putin won't stay in the box that the west imagines they put him in.  As it stands, I believe that Russia has been the number one beneficiary of the blunders of Bush and the Neocons.  Funny - in the Neocon literature (I use the term lightly) it was China that had to be stopped from becoming the new hegemon.  Now it looks like Russia and China will have to duke it out in the future to earn than honorific.  But if I was a neocon, and I was dedicated to remain the hegemon, and Russia took out its bombs and shaked them at me, well, I'd take out mine and shake them back.  That's what I meant by "makes sense."  Perhaps you missed my suffix: "regretably."

Neoboho

avatar

Has anyone war gamed an attack on Iran? I can't see how Iran can be stopped from sinking the Navy & disabling nearby air bases in the first two hours of combat. We must hit thousands of targets. They have only a few dozen: Naval ships & nearby airbases. We are fighting at great range. They are fighting on home turf. The Iranian defense will be to pour their entire military into a mere handful of targets.

You think the US can knock out Iranian command & control? Wanna talk to the Israeli commanders who could not do that in over a month of fighting against Hezbollah last summer? Could not even knock Hezbollah TV off the air?

Let's see. Five warheads. That would be - what? - two targets, with a third for reserve, along with two more in case of equipment failure.

If the Pentagon knows a conventional attack has no chance of success, will they simply nuke the two main targets & then sit tight, hoping Iran is too stunned to return fire?

Or do they expect to lose the carrier groups & the air wings & want to have the nukes ready for a revenge follow-up? I'm talking of maybe 10,000 dead sailors here. That's not going to go over well with the Fox News crowd.

If the later, then who, exactly, leaked the report, and why? Is the Pentagon trying to psych the Iranians into not defending themselves?

And if they are? Then wouldn't the Iranians see the upcoming war as coming down to a single long-range aircraft with stand-off cruise missiles?

And whether the plane is by itself, or part of a larger conventional attack, the probable flight paths of nuke-laden planes flying from the US is limited. This means that if the Iranians must defend themselves from putative nuclear attack, they can concentrate their defenses in a specific direction. (I suspect due south, from the Indian Ocean.) Which doesn't make the American job any easier.

Simply ghastly.

avatar

of course, what if that 'higher-up' goes much higher than we're considering on this thread. imagine cheney orchestrating this entire sequence with the intent of it circulating around the world. does a damn good job of drawing away from the iraq debate while simultaneously forcing some of the GOP presidential candidate hawks pivoting on stage to validate the nuclear option - raising the stakes in national discourse dramatically.

AFAIK, the conventionals are the AGM-86D and the nuclear the stealthier AGM-129. They do look different.

Given the complexity of the arming procedure, I don't think anyone today could launch an armed one by accident. Typically, part or all of the Permissive Action Link arming codes are stored internally to the warhead in a way that would require factory disassembly to get to them. The crews don't have the codes until they receive an Emergency Action Message by radio or printer.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

avatar

Not sure what you mean. Nukes have been tested on fortified targets since the November, 1951 "Uncle" shot. It resulted in one of the dustiest mushroom clouds ever seen. As probably everyone knows by now, nuclear bunker busters don't work very well--the yield required varies as an exponential function of the depth of the target. For the math-inclined it might be worthwhile to estimate the depth of the Iranian targets, then back-calculate to estimate the yield of the device needed to reach that depth. Just don't be surprised if the number you end up with is around 140. Nothing liberal about math.

avatar

There's a huge difference between Putin's pathetic attemps and US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Russian saber rattling aginst the USA on one hand with cold war era turbo-prob bombers flying out of an economically devastated, military-industrial complex decimated, and politically unstable nation.

US sabre rattling against potentially Iran or some other weak state, on the other hand, from an unstable administration with a penchant for ideological crusades and reckless use of force, and a huge and thriving military-industrial complex.

avatar

About that Iran war game:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/02/wiran102.xml
It was held at Heritage of all places!!! And of course they are wildly optimistic about it... I love the part where they say they're gonna open ANWR for drilling to counteract the predicted spike in crude prices. It is really amateur hour (I mean it has been amateur hour for the past 7 years or so...).

BTW, I think it was this particular article that got TPM started on this whole Iranmongering trip. While I agree with Josh that one should not underestimate the delusion level at the White House and the OVP, I still think we are quite a long ways from an Iran run. I think they will do it, probably before the forced end of the surge (that would be April 2008), but not before January (they need to prepare us after all - and they need clouds and shorter days as well - remember January 91?)

[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!

avatar

On Oct. 7 2002 GWB said (something like): "America must not ignore the threat (posed by the Vice President) gathering against us. Facing clear evidence of peril (that would come at the hands of the Vice President), we cannot wait for the next "mistake" (made by my administration) -- the smoking gun -- that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud, that came from one of our B-52s mistakenly loaded with live nukes.

Even if the transport of these weapons was a "mistake". It seems like a pretty catastrophic failure. You start to wonder how many more mistakes it would take to get to "we don't know how those nukes got on that plane flying into combat?"

It really is getting comical -- we invade a Iraq falsely believing they were pursuing nuke technology. Now we appear to be vaguely threatening Iran with a nuke attack. Its almost like everything the republicans take a public stand against -- they are actually doing. (Reeps have us in fear of nukes from other countries, so they are trying to nuke other countries. They fear, demean, despise homosexuals, but they solicit anonymous sex in public bathrooms. They criticise and demean "nation building," but start the country on the largest nation building exercise since WWII. They claim they are the party of "family values" but get busted in brothels, chasing pages, smoking meth with their masseuse. One of their major f0oundations is fiscal responsibility, yet the budget (even excluding the war) has ballooned under their watch.) Who would ever vote for a Reep again?

avatar

Okay, forgive me my lack of bleeding-edge technical knowledge, but I was under the impression that deep earth-penetrating nukes were reinforced free-fall weapons that used mass and speed to drive deep underground before detonating. Cruise missiles, being small winged aircraft, follow a flatter trajectory and aren't particularly robust, so they don't seem well-suited to carrying DEP bombs. Am I wrong?

At this moment, I believe the big story here is the apparent loss of operational control of five nuclear weapons. It doesn't make sense to me that we'd stage nukes to the Middle East mounted in missiles destined for the shredder, unless the warheads were destined to be mated with newer delivery systems at Barksdale and carriage on the old missiles allowed the BUFF to get there fastest with the mostest. I've no idea how the AF or, in the old days, SAC shuffled its nukes around. Absent more knowledge, the surface story - "Oops!" - is scary enough.

As for why nukes would be deemed necessary for taking out Iran's assets, use at the onset of hostilities seems unlikely, but if Iran managed to take out a carrier or deliver chem/bio/rad warheads to a neighboring state, I think there'd be a great temptation to use nukes in response.

avatar

So some think I'm a troll and not helpful while Bush/Cheney kill hundreds of thousands, plan Lord knows what in Iran, and have set precedents for executive power that have turned us into a virtual monarchy. So Nancy Pelosi must be right to take impeachment of these monsters off the table. Get real. These guys are ruining America and Nancy fiddles while Iraq, maybe, Iran, and definitely the Constitution burn.Tom

avatar

Clem,
Perhaps they weren't moved(this assumes it was not a colossal error) for use against Iran, but rather to provide a casus belli against Iran, when one goes missing and detonates on US soil.

What then?

You really need to be more suspicious.
/snark

avatar

Get real, impeachment isn't a realistic possibility. It's not as though a passionate speech, or several, will change the entrenched Congress votes against impeachment.

Pelosi hasn't "taken it off the table." She just hasn't put it on the table because it's a waste of time, and even counter productive.

Your emotionalism doesn't change the fact there are't enough votes to successfully impeach. When it was discussed behind closed doors a while back, the consensus was there just wasn't enough votes for it, or even close.

And nothing would rally Republicans and distract from other issues like defending him from impeachment, so it would be a really stupid move by Democrats. Unfortunately, we don't have a system of simple no-confidence.

That may change with public opinion. But time is running out, and trying to predict that in such a small window of opportunity, increasingly becoming irrelevant, is such a stupidly emotional obsession.

Re-read your Kissinger on the Congress of Vienna, and your several hundred years of European history before and after that ...

the sensible thing to do, for adult sovereigns of great yet limited resources, is to try to split the opposing alliance whose combined weight over-awes yours ...

Yet sixty-two years into the nuclear age, these stupid children we have "leading" us in our "democracy" only know how to start fights ...

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are going so well, the snark goes, are going so well, why not add another ?

The neo-con children have not yet felt any pain from their failures in Iraq and Afghanistan yet, so they have no dis-incentive to new military mis-adventures ... it's the wars on the environment, the global working classes, the Democrats and the media that ARE going so well for them, that emboldens them to new wars.

Am I the only citizen who prays for a "meet-up" of intelligent activists around the AEI in DC on Monday next, when Ledeen and friends war-monger in a warm-up in the afternoon, before Gingrich war-mongers at night, who will (legally and non-violently, of course) shame and deter these lunatics who run our world ???

My next bumper sticker: Any child can start a fight, it takes adults to create peace.

Let's get going people ... watch out, I might be knocking on your door in Clackamas County OR next week, and I might be on Community TV in Lane County OR a few weeks after.

Let's organize now to be able to end American imperialism by 2012 or 2016 -- which will entail restoring the Constitution and the rule of law, restoring democracy and progressiveness to American life, and most likely turning the ship on global warming too, who's smart and strong enough to survive?

avatar

Well, Tom, after two years of watching and holding back, I can't no more. My judgment of what you do is repeat the same things over and over, no matter what the topic of the thread is. You seem to look for a place to put your favorite slogans about your 2 favorite topics: Bush stupid and Bush/Cheney impeachment. This one actually has a little more coloration to it than most of them!

If you look at standard definitions of troll rating, there's often something about participating in a conversation in good faith. That includes not interjecting into a discussion a slogan to promote an agenda. After repeating this tactic often enough, it sure comes close to spam. You don't even seem as if you want to discuss anything most times, or introduce something to do with the topic or sub-thread, you just seem to want to post your slogans.

Most people on this website probably agree with you on your two favorite topics. They just might not like having to see it repeated over and over like an advertisement whenever you can find a crack to squeeze it in. It's sort of insulting to the intelligence after a while. I think you have been very very lucky so far in getting people to endorse what you do here with high ratings, because if the spam content was different, you would have been gone long ago.

avatar

See above post about political realities. Blaming Pelosi for the overall zeitgeist of present day America, is idiotic.

That's exactly the problem with so many online whiners. It's easy to complain how the world "should" be, and blame Pelosi or whoever for not making it happen.

But going and meeting conservatives and moderates in real life, rubbing elbows, and actually convincing them to support various political positions, that's a whole nother matter.

avatar

The bottom line is these pols are elected, and they have votes in the Congress. Blaming Pelosi for whatever hawk some middle-class conservative region elected, is idiotic.

As Speaker she has to be Democratic Centrist to effectively hold people together. Anybody who doesn't understand that needs a clue about basic civics and human psychology.

This is a democracy.

I'm so damn sick and tired of hearing whiners complain about pols without taking any responsibility for their own votes and those of their neighbors.

Why don't some of the whiners here go down to your typical dive bar and talk with the blue-collar, bar-flys there.

Mostly your Average-Joe cares about lowered taxes, perhaps a passing reference to unions, labor standards, a general sense of the economy, and such. They're generally pro-military and not terribly concerned about massive civilian casualties, or thinking about long term geo-political strategies. It's too abstract and far-away from their day to day. Also Republicans have done an excellent job of encouraging apathy, with Reagan saying government is the problem.

Nancy Pelosi didn't make the world the way it is. And whiny and theatrical "activists" are doing less than nothing to convince middle America to change.

Instead of faux-righteousness on an online fora, how about trying to actually change one conservative voter's mind, in the real world.

That's what real pols have to do: convince real people. Not just preach to the online choir.

avatar

I'll stick my neck out and predict that this buff-carrying-nukes incident is part of an not-so-expert bluff. All kinds of highly detailed reports about U.S. readiness to strike have been appearing in the British press and DailyKos but not here.

Were I a global gamesman advising the Bush administration, I'd note that Bush's reputation as a madman (an asset carefully cultivated by Nixon and Kissinger) is an asset in decline. What better time and cause than to exploit it now against Iran's nuclear program. I'm just sayin'.

avatar

Didn't the IMF treaty require these the be destroyed in a particular way?

If memory serves, they were being dismantled at Longhorn Ammunition Plant just over the border in Texas.

Does anyone know if that program is still active?

It does seem strange that they would be moving them with the warheads on them, though.

avatar

"Blaming Pelosi for the overall zeitgeist of present day America, is idiotic."Agreed, but blaming Pelosi for taking impeachment "off the table" is accurate.

avatar

Sorry you don't like my style, but there is nothing more important to the future of our planet than stopping these two madmen and Pelosi is the one person who has the power to move impeachment and she's not doing it. 

avatar

SeeDee

Kozmik, with all due respect (meaning I would never classify your remarks as idiotic), I would like a list of those 'conservatives and moderates' whom you have 'reasoned' into accepting the dismal and disastrous facts RE the present status quo of America that exist after nearly a decade of 'CONSERVATIVE' (fake conservative, that is) control.

Even within my own family (which is fairly close-knit despite varying political and religious views) I've not had much luck 'converting' the 'conservatives' to acceptance of the fact that we need to change tactics and policies and directions as far as our country is concerned.

Of course, left-wingers know and realize the limits imposed by thin majorities...of course, they know they must accept constitutional provisions RE impeachment; but, that definitely does not mean that they should remain silent in prodding our Democrats to 'do the right (pun) thing'.

avatar

While "my stupidly emotional obsession" (sorry that I'm not as bright and self-controlled as yuo are, in your opinion) is what you think is the real problem I know that if the Democrats in the House all voted for impeachment Cheney/Bush would be impeached. You have got to challenge these madmen for the sake of the future. Let those who would vote against - vote against and hold them accountable in 2008. Bush/Cheney have killed close to a million people, they have advocated torture, they may do who knows what to Iran, they have destroyed our Consitution and no one is standing up to them. Future Presidents have to know they risk impeachment if they try this kind of illegal behavior.

avatar

And nothing Putin is doing wasn't done 100s of times by both sides during the Cold War.

Ironically, IMO he just wants to make us spend ourselves into a hole while Russia grows rich with oil revenues. Hell, maybe turnabout is fair play.

avatar

SeeDee

The sheer madness and failure of the Bush/Cheney regime can only be gauged by this almost surreal thread which has Americans talking and stewing about the actual possible use of nuclear weaponry.

Suppose such idiocy does happen...what will be the world reaction to a quarter-million (or more)vaporized and burned Iranis?

The mere suggestion of approval for such conduct by the Vice-President of the U.S. should bring his immediate arrest and indictment on charges of advocating waging war against innocent civilians.

As pointed out earlier, this entire scenario is CREEPY.

J. McCutchen

I'm with ya up until the nuclear part. Yup, Newton's Third Law of International Politics - For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Russia and China know that the Eagle Has Crash Landed; that Bush's reckless adventurism has hastened the decline of US world hegemony, and have in fact conducted their first ever joint military maneuvers.

The new Eastern Euro NATO/EU members are meant to take notice here but I don't think we're close to the chicken little moment yet

We don't need nuclear saber-rattling. We're in enough deep doo as it is. Pax Americana is over. History has not ended.

avatar

I don't know who first conjectured the mega-blitz-from-the-git-go scenario, but it caught on. That scenario is not so likely though, is it?

What I'm about to say has likely been said